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Oil prices up amid expectations for OPEC deal extension

21 Mai 2017

Oil is back above $50 a barrel in NY for the first time this month on growing confidence that OPEC will maintain its efforts to diminish a global glut.

In the long run, though, "whatever it takes" might exact too big a price to pay for the OPEC and non-OPEC producers: Requiring them to leave the 1.8 million bpd in the ground for the foreseeable future.

Elsewhere non-Opec producers Oman and South Sudan have also indicated they would back coordinated cuts led by Opec.

And analysts now say USA shale production will grow even faster than expected. But as it was becoming increasingly obvious that OPEC's cuts are not working fast enough and US shale is roaring back to production growth, investor enthusiasm waned.

Rosneft, the largest oil producer in Russian Federation, will meet agreements with OPEC on oil output reductions, the company's chief executive told reporters in Berlin on Thursday.

Within OPEC, so far Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Venezuela, and Algeria have said they would support some kind of extension, or would support a rollover of the cuts if others do.

"Reports this morning that Opec is considering not just extending but also deepening the cuts in a bid to bring the market back into balance is likely supporting the move", he said.

To some, the past two weeks' price rebound was to be expected after April's slide. Ministers will then gather for dinner Wednesday night to discuss their options, before OPEC convenes its formal meeting around 10 am Thursday local time. This is not expected to result in any decision.

Overall, he sees this outcome as unlikely, with a 15% probability.

Away from the oil market, gold futures headed sideways as traders looked to cash in on the recent price spike.

If Raisi wins "the agreement in its current form would risk being overturned".

Energy services firm Baker Hughes said USA drillers added oil rigs for an 18th week in a row, the second-longest streak of weekly additions on record.

Many of the OPEC members are backing this proposal says a monthly report from the International Energy Agency released on Tuesday.

What could be the probable outcome from the meeting?

Energy shares, last year's biggest winners, have tumbled in 2017 as oil retreated on concern about increasing U.S. output.

If prices drift significantly higher than the Dun & Bradstreet $55 forecast after the IPO, that will create incentive for some OPEC members to cheat, he said. Production in those two countries, which have been hit hard by militancy, is only a combined 6,300 b/d above their October levels, according to the latest Platts OPEC survey, assuaging fears that robust recoveries in both would undo a lot of the output cuts by the rest of OPEC. This nine month extension is longer than the optional six-month extension proposed in the deal, and implies that the strengthening of the oil prices is much more crucial for these countries as opposed to defending their market share in the current scheme of things.

Oil prices up amid expectations for OPEC deal extension