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UK election eve polls give May a boost

08 Juin 2017

While Prime Minister Theresa May signalled her party's willingness to put aside human rights laws in order to be able to bring in greater restrictions on those suspected of being involved in terrorism activities, the Labour Party continued to emphasise the impact of cuts to police forces brought in by the Conservative government, describing attempts to attack human rights legislation as a "diversion".

The unexpected proposal to scrap a planned cap on social care costs changed the momentum of the campaign, as nearly immediately the polls began to tighten, while Tory candidates found anxious voters raising the issue of what the opposition parties quickly dubbed the "dementia tax" on the doorstep.

It's hard to predict what the election result will be because of a number of high-profile polling misses in British politics lately, he said - including in connection with the British referendum in June past year when a majority voted to leave the European Union.

However, with negotiations due to start so soon after the election, it is likely that the PM will still go into talks with her uncompromising message to European Union leaders that "no deal is better than a bad deal".

Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party is on course to increase its majority in parliament in Britain's election tomorrow (Thursday), two last-minute opinion polls showed. "It's a choice, quite simply, of hope or fear".

As the campaigning enters its final hours, polls are all over the map (see table below). Voters went to the polls in a 2015 election, and in the June 2016 European Union membership referendum.

But the campaign has seen a series of unexpected twists, including the bloodiest militant attack in Britain since 2005 and the shrinking of May's once-commanding poll lead of more than 20 percentage points over the opposition Labour Party.

Betfair, another leading bookmaker, also views the Tories as the odds-on favourite to win the general election, with odds of 1/12.

Pollsters have therefore adjusted their methodologies by widening their pools of respondents, asking them more questions and weighing the result with high-quality academic research done since the last election, explained Curtice.

Another answer suggested that 51 per cent of people were anxious about the SNP's influence on Mr Corbyn's party in the result of a hung parliament.

Officially, it takes 326 seats for an overall majority in the House of Commons.

The Independent newspaper, which commissioned the ComRes poll, said the 44-34 lead it gave May would leave her her with a majority of 74, bigger than any Conservative majority since the days when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister.

Polling stations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland open at 7am and close at 10pm.

The constituency of Houghton and Sunderland South in north-east England has a history of being the first to declare the results, with the complete results expected to be clear by early on Friday morning.

He will repeat his appeal to Labour voters to "lend" him their vote in seats where the Lib Dems are the Conservatives' main rival, labelling the Tories "heartless" and "hapless" over their social care reforms.

All the major parties wrapped up their campaigning on Thursday with a last-ditch effort to swing undecided voters.

Mr Corbyn replaced Ms Abbott yesterday with Lyn Brown, the party's spokeswoman on police matters, citing ill health. Asked if she would back a privately funded yacht she said she would not be "tempted down a policy route" adding only that "we are going to take various steps to make sure we get those trade deals and make sure we get them right".

Mr Corbyn told the Islington rally that the best way of honouring the victims of the two terror attacks during the election campaign would be for people exercise their democratic rights.

Two of the three London Bridge attackers, who were all shot dead at the scene by police, had been known to authorities beforehand.

UK election eve polls give May a boost