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Global oil markets expected to tighten in Q3

16 Juin 2017

Oil prices continue to lag despite efforts by supply-giants Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation to reduce a stubborn glut in world supplies. Accordingly, higher shale oil supplies will weigh on prices. This is a key reason prices will remain low in the long term.

Crude oil prices continue to get pressured as figures of oil and gasoline stockpiles continues to inflate last week.

It also put Iran's refinery capacities growth rate per annum at 2.0 percent in 2016.

OPEC's oil production jumped in May, despite the exporter group agreeing last month to extend its six-month deal to cap output into 2018.

Gasoline stocks rose 2.1 million barrels, or 0.9 percent, to 242.4 million barrels, for the week ending June 9, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.

USA crude inventories rose 2.753 million barrels at the end of last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, well above the 2.739 million barrels decline expected. The Saudi effort comes against a background of the pending public offering by Saudi Arabian Oil Co, known as Aramco.

In a sign of the continuing supply overhang, traders are again hiring oil tankers to store unsold crude while they wait for higher prices. It said Tuesday that output rose 1% from April amid gains in Iraq, Nigeria and Libya-the latter two are exempt for the current production-cut deal.

The number of oil rigs in the USA has increased for 21 consecutive weeks, according to oil services company Baker Hughes. Total OPEC production for May was 32.1 million barrels per day, an increase of about 1 percent, or 336,000 barrels per day, from the previous month. But that was before U.S. shale oil advances kicked in.

"This fall was led by U.S. tight oil, whose production fell 0.3 Mb/d, a swing of nearly 1 Mb/d relative to growth in 2015". A year earlier, average daily demand was 9.665 million barrels.

That means an entrenched market glut that has kept a firm lid on oil prices is likely to persist, despite disciplined efforts by most OPEC producers to rein in their own output.

The dip in oil prices came on the heels of the projection by the International Energy Agency of an increase in production from non-members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

But the agency also trimmed its forecast for supply-demand deficit in the second half of this year from 700,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd, such has been the pace of growth in supply in the U.S., which has made up for most of the Opec/non-Opec cuts. Exxon fell back below its 50-day line while Chevron was testing that support level.

Global oil markets expected to tighten in Q3