That process of certification is the crux of the current crisis, Trump's threat to withdraw endorsement paves the way for new sanctions on Iran, and Tehran has threatened partial or complete withdrawal from the agreement in response.
Iranian authorities have repeatedly said Tehran would not be the first to violate the accord, under which Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear program in return for the lifting of most worldwide sanctions that had crippled its economy. French President Emmanuel Macron has also warned against such a move.
Iran on Monday vowed a "crushing" response if the US designated its Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group.
A commander of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran issued a statement saying USA bases in the region will be in danger if further sanctions on Tehran are imposed. He knows that the secret side agreements to the Obama deal preclude confirmation and provide risible results such as the Iranians self-inspecting their principal nuclear sites. Ending the deal could mean sanctions for Iran, and it could encourage Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Rouhani vowed that Iran would boost its ballistic missile capabilities despite criticism from the United States. France, Germany, and others are too busy selling aircraft to Iran and capturing contracts for Iranian oil production to worry about what Iran is actually doing. This time, however, media reports continue to indicate that the president is leaning strongly toward declaring Iran in violation of the deal. We can only hope that Trump certifies with the deal, but if he doesn't, Washington, as well as the other signatories to the agreement could ultimately pay the price for making the wrong decision.
In accordance with the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), the U.S. administration has to certify its commitment to the deal every 90 days.
In addition to announcing a broad new Iran strategy, Trump is also expected to announce his decision to "de-certify" the landmark deal on Iran's nuclear program, opening the door for the re-implementation of crippling economic sanctions.
While weighing the pros and cons of Trump's possible decision, the U.S. mainstream media alleged that the withdrawal from the deal wouldn't be as easy as it seems.
There remains high uncertainty on what President Trump will announce. Further, the administration certified compliance in both May and in July.
Abedin recalled that if the United States president decertifies the agreement, Congress has 60 days to re-impose major sanctions against Iran. "Unfortunately, this administration is going back to posturing", he said.
Will EU Major States Remain Committed to JCPOA?
Gabriel called the accord a "great diplomatic success", saying it had prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons and headed off a military conflict between Iran and Israel.
Since the lifting of sanctions, production in Iran has increased by 1mnb/d, with crude exports of 2.2 mb/d and around 0.5 mb/d of condensate. Bloomberg reports that the president may go with this option.
Iran is exploiting sanctions relief to undermine American interests.
The U.S. has numerous military bases within 500 kilometers (310 miles) of Iran, namely in countries like Bahrain, Iraq and Afghanistan. This would leave Iran having to find alternative buyers, which would likely be in Asia where it sold its crude during the prior sanctions. (The deal restricts Iranian uranium enrichment for fifteen years and presumes to limit research and development for twenty-five years.) The French president is acting, well, French in seeking to pre-emptively appease Iran as a nuclear power. Absent such a shipping constraint, the production impact should remain limited by the ability of Asia refiners to absorb displaced European volumes. "Some countries and some companies will walk away from Iran because of fear of losing the United States market; others will call the US's bluff and challenge us".
For Iranians, they still do not have access to worldwide credit cards. Instead, congressional leaders should demand that the Trump administration develop and execute a credible global diplomatic game plan on Iran.
Jaafari cautioned the United States government of the dire consequences of imposing new sanction against Iran.
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