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International Monetary Fund raises China growth forecast for 2017 to 6.8 pct

10 Octobre 2017

For both years, the outlook is up 0.1 percentage points from the IMF's previous forecast in July and would mark the fastest growth since 2010.

Yet despite the optimistic forecast in its World Economic Outlook report, the Washington-based Fund stresses its concern regarding the sustainability of the national debt through its projections for the period after the end of the bailout program. Further, IMF cut India growth forecast for the next year 2018-19 by 30 basis points to 7.4%. In an interim forecast published in July it already said that it expected growth of just 1.7 per cent this year.

"For 2017, most of our upgrade owes to brighter prospects for the advanced economies, whereas for 2018's positive revision, emerging market and developing economies play a relatively bigger role". It expects growth to slow from 1.8% in 2016 to 1.7% this year and to 1.5% in 2018. The IMF welcomed Saudi Arabia's reform package, although it has already sent the kingdom's economy into the red in the first two quarters of the year.

Global economic upswing has strengthened and is broad-based, yet it remains incomplete, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, as it raised the growth projections for the world economy for this year and next.

"Growth is projected to remain subdued ... despite more favourable commodity export prices and strong agricultural production, as heightened political uncertainty saps consumer and business confidence", the global lender said.

AMRO, which earlier projected a 6.8 percent expansion for 2017, noted that "after the boost from elections related spending in 2016, the pace of economic expansion moderated to 6.4 percent in the first half of 2017 as fixed investment decelerated".

But economic shocks and slow-burning dangers from different directions could make all of this short-lived, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The estimate for Association of Southeast Asian Nations members - Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam - was up 0.1 point to 5.2 percent in 2017 and unchanged from July 2018.

Obstfeld said all of this called for action "that should take place now, while times are good". Those with budget surpluses should spend on education and infrastructure. "At some level the BoE is in the position you don't want to be in as a central banker where you're facing a negative supply shock which directly brings your inflation mandate into conflict with what is possibly better in terms of economic growth".

International Monetary Fund raises China growth forecast for 2017 to 6.8 pct