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Heavy snowfall Thursday will bring white to Christmas

20 Décembre 2017

In 2012, a cold front brought hail, sleet and half a foot of snow to parts of Denton and Collin County.

But a mid-December thaw has indeed arrived, as our forecast is free of any arctic blasts and additional chances for snow between now and Christmas.

We'll update this outlook as we count down the days.

Before we break it down, we have to note: The meteorological definition of a white Christmas is 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m., but come on.

According to the map, a cold front will be moving down the United Kingdom from the northwest bringing in colder air.

The mild temperatures are expected to last throughout the Christmas days, with afternoon temperatures between 6 and 9 degrees.

It's an exhausting, topsy-turvy weather week with wild temperature swings and just about every form of precipitation you can imagine. The models can change and that would impact what we see.

Historically, much of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, most of Michigan's Upper Peninsula and a large portion of the Western mountain areas have a 90% or better chance of a white Christmas.

Models tend to struggle with arctic airmasses so it wouldn't surprise me, or the KHOU weather team, if it was a bit colder than now forecast.

"But it's definitely going to be colder, " she said.

Backing up to Tuesday, it will be mostly sunny with a high temperature we'd normally expect in mid November - that is, around 54 degrees.

Then comes the second round of our thaw later Friday into the weekend before Christmas.

And forecasters are warning of colder weather coming in in time for Christmas.

The best chance for snowfall on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day could be in a swath that goes through the Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes and New England. While some may like wearing shorts on Christmas, it seems the overwhelmingly majority wants cold air, and most importantly snow, on Christmas.

For the rest of Saturday and most of Sunday we dry back down, but we see much colder air starting to push in from the NW.

We will continue to constantly refine our forecast for Friday and Sunday's winter weather potential. "So, it could actually snow on Christmas Day (like it did back in 2002, 3.3"), but if there wasn't an inch or more on the ground when the daily snow depth report was taken, it doesn't count.

Heavy snowfall Thursday will bring white to Christmas