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Opec expects US supplies to increase

22 Janvier 2018

Both are at the highest levels since 2015. Lukoil chief executive Vagit Alekperov believes that Russian Federation should start smoothly exiting the agreement if prices remain at $70 per barrel for more than half a year. However, the bulls that are riding heavily on this recovery have strong reasons to stick to their stance.

BHGE data also showed that the U.S. oil rig count declined by five to 747 in the week to 19 January, to about the same level it was in early September 2017. The investment bank sees Brent and West Texas Intermediate average price forecasts at United States dollars 62 and USD 57.5 per barrel for 2018, respectively.

After searing attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in 2016, Nigeria lost a third of its production, temporarily ceding Africa's top oil producer spot to Angola before a truce agreed in the last quarter of 2016, saw militants declare a cease fire.

U.S. crude supply is forecast to push past 10 million barrels a-day (b/d) during the year, according the Paris-based intergovernmental organisation. According to OPEC, oil surplus inventories were managed to be reduced to 220 mln barrels by December.

Speculative positions on crude futures contracts suggested to some analysts that a break lower in oil prices was likely in the coming weeks. Outside producers are now expected to raise supply by 1.15 million bpd in 2018, increasing 16 percent from last month's estimate of 990,000.

Devising an exit strategy for the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) members in the future will not be discussed during Muscat's meeting, as they continue to show full commitment to the agreement, according to Rashidi. The EIA seems to be bullish on the US' ability to ramp up production soon.

Even with the moderate price response to the OPEC-led cuts during most of 2017, rival suppliers still managed to bounce back with output growth of 700,000 barrels a day, the IEA said.

Overall non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2018, up from 0.7 million bpd past year. As Warner points out, around $55 a barrel is the breakeven point for USA shale-oil production, and it is coming back with a vengeance. Consequently, the USA oil output has grown sharply over the last few months. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect a 425,000-barrel drop in oil inventories and a 2.7 million-barrel increase in gasoline stockpiles. That was just one of a chorus of voices from Goldman Sachs group Inc.to OPEC itself warning of a looming output surge reminiscent of the "heady days" of the first shale boom.

The IEA also sees a big rise in oil production this year, including "explosive growth" in the US With the pickup in non-Opec supply exceeding the increase in demand, it sees the world's need for Opec production falling by around 600,000 barrels a day compared with last year, to a level below last month's output. "U.S. oil producers are staging a dramatic comeback amid a recovering oil price that has allowed many of them to restart operations".

That sets 2018 up to be very good for oil prices. In fact, as per some reports, a number of shale producers have hedged more than 70 per cent of their production already.

Are you wondering why oil is off to such a rousing start in 2018?

Falih said the global economy had strengthened while the supply cuts had shrunk oil inventories around the world.

Opec expects US supplies to increase