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Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast - Production Cut Agreement Should Be Supportive

11 Décembre 2018

UK Brent crude has fallen sharply and is now trading at under $60 per barrel, from the levels of $85 in October. "OPEC has given the oil market a rudder that appeared largely absent".

Following the agreement, Oil prices jumped more than four percent with Brent crude, the worldwide benchmark for oil prices, trading at $63 a barrel.

The kingdom's diplomatic position has been badly weakened by the furore over the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The oil price improvements came as a pair of junior Calgary oil companies announced they would cut payouts to shareholders and reduce production because of the current quarter's low oil prices to date. The U.S. imports more than 7 million barrels a day of crude from all over the globe to help feed its refineries, which consume more than 17 million barrels each day.

Data released Friday from Baker Hughes BHGE, +0.88% also implied a decline in future output, with the number of active USA rigs drilling for oil down by 10 at 877 this week. In a striking development, the US government revealed that it turned into a net exporter of petroleum for the first time in 75 years last week thanks to the shale boom.

Analysts say they're likely waiting to hear from non-OPEC Russia to better co-ordinate the cut.

Mazrouei, who is also the United Arab Emirates' minister of energy and industry, said the agreement had been a success and shown "positive progress on removing the inventory overhang". On Friday, the Saudi and Russian envoys haggled in Vienna for two hours, consulting their governments by phone during the bargaining, OPEC officials said. Nigeria, which has been exempt since the previous round of cuts in January, 2017, agreed to participate. Because these countries control such a large share of the total oil market, OPEC has an incredible amount of power when it comes to regulating prices.

Цена нефти взлетела на сумасшедшую высоту что происходит
US becomes net exporter of oil for the first time in 75 years

"Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted".

Both Cardinal Energy Ltd. and Granite Oil Corp. said they can't afford to wait and see if Alberta's production cuts will result in a sustained recovery in oil prices. Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, said he was not surprised this happened in the winter, a seasonally slow period for domestic gasoline demand. That makes the recent price collapse as much a political threat as an economic headache.

Oil workers adjust a pipe section at the turntable on a derrick during drilling operations in an oilfield.

US production is expected to average more than 12 million bpd in 2019, an increase of more than 3 million bpd in 2016. A surge in USA supply, which has grown by almost 3 million b/d annualized over the past three months, was the primary cause.

According to her, production cut of 1.2 million b/d would tighten the oil market by the third quarter of 2019 and cause prices to rise back above $70 per barrel for Brent.

OPEC delegates have said the group and its allies could cut by 1 million bpd if Russian Federation contributed 150,000 bpd of that reduction.

The Saudi energy minister is doubting an OPEC deal to cut oil production will be reached by Friday.

Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast - Production Cut Agreement Should Be Supportive